When the world hunkered down and went into quarantine earlier this year, many in aviation feared the worst. A worldwide recession far beyond what we saw in 2008 seemed plausible. Yet, after a downturn in sales and operations that lasted about a month, activity in many parts of aviation came back strong, pointing to an optimistic future.
Eagle Creek Aviation Service’s Jim Worrell said the maintenance business is strong, and prospects are starting to complete deals. “We’re picking up speed,” he said. Byerly Aviation’s Bruce Byerly has a similar take on the current market status. “Some pretty nice airplanes have sold recently,” he said. “The Commanders are soldiering along steadily.”
Some of the downturn during the pandemic seemed to be strictly logistical. A lack of travel made it difficult to move airplanes and connect buyers. Worrell described a deal he couldn’t complete because the buyer was Canadian and decided not to wait any longer for the borders to open. He opted to buy something closer to home.
In terms of the current market, supply has been more limited recently than it was at the end of last year. At the time of this writing there were about four 1000s, one 980, one 900, and about 12 690As actively listed. According to Byerly that supply is down 30 to 50 percent from the end of the last year. Curiously, that hasn’t resulted in higher prices. Airplanes are selling faster, supply is tighter, but prices ticked down slightly. Byerly attributes the unusual market behavior as a symptom of the overall volatility.
Both Worrell and Byerly forecast a decent year despite a challenging first quarter and it being an election year. Worrell said his inquiries had been averaging 10 a month, and now he estimates it’s more like 25. “Some weeks I get three a day,” he said.
Larger general aviation activity markers indicate that private flying activity has fully recovered. Foreflight said IFR filings are back to pre-quarantine levels, and FAA data from a random sampling of airports shows the same.
As borders reopen and destinations begin to accept visitors in the way of open hotels and restaurants, it seems clear that with the exception of the airlines, aviation activity will fully recover in the mid-term.
