MARKET REPORT Sanity Returns

It was bound to return to normalcy at some point.

According to major aircraft sales organizations, the recent insanity in the used market is finally behind us, at least for now, as prices settle a little and supply and demand begin to come into a more peaceful co-existence. This is generally good news for everyone, as things like pre-purchase inspections, proper due diligence, and pricing that doesn’t exclude quality buyers bring a more desirable environment back to the table.

That’s not to say things aren’t still hot. In traditional measures, this would still be considered a strong seller’s market, with significantly less than the traditional 10 percent of inventory listed for sale. As of this writing, for example, there were only four 690As listed for sale, three 690Bs, and two 1000s. And if history is a guide, at least a few of those were already spoken for.

Although pockets of incredibly tight supply still exist in the used turbojet and turboprop market, the International Aircraft Dealer’s Association said it sees many indications of the market stabilizing, an incredibly robust year notwithstanding. And VRef, the aircraft valuation company, shows all Twin Commander models with flat pricing compared to the previous quarter. That fact should be taken with some caution, however, as a small number of transactions can have a major impact on the data. It only takes one good airplane or one project to skew that trend.

However, if the competition is any guide, the trend is probably correct. King Airs and MU-2s are also flat after months of similarly tight supply. And Twin Commander sales experts Bruce Byerly and Jim Worrell said they expected pricing to stabilize a bit through the end of 2022 and into the next year.

The New Year brings many new questions. How will the supply chain continue to impact manufacturers and shops, and by extension, the market? Will the end of bonus depreciation put a damper on sales? And how many of the new Covid-related buyers will stay in aviation? No doubt instability will remain, as it has since 2020, where unpredictable swings have ignored conventional economic measures.

Maybe normalcy isn’t so normal, after all.