It’s clear that in the past few months as the aircraft market has continued its astounding skyward trajectory that there’s been a disconnect between serious buyers and those who are more interested in getting in at the right time. Buyers have continued to drive up prices and snatch up inventory, while people looking for a deal have continued their refrain that this is a bubble that’s sure to burst sometime soon.
Perhaps the time has come where they’re both right.
Whether it’s because of the war in Ukraine or continued inflation, there are some signs that the market is starting to stabilize a bit, according to Twin Commander broker Bruce Byerly. “In the last week there’s been an influx of airplanes available,” he said. “When you go from zero available in some segments to seven or nine available, that is interesting to watch.” Byerly’s point has been echoed by others. In NBAA’s Insider Daily, it was reported that industry watcher WingX sees slowing, especially in Europe. But all this comes with a big caveat. Even a slight slowing down isn’t a bubble-burster. It’s better characterized as a return to a more healthy, balanced market.
That said, Commanders continue to be hot and Byerly said there’s “a shortage of everything.”
Eagle Creek’s Jim Worrell agrees. He said he sees no signs of a slowdown. Worrell has closed on four 1000s and a 690 since January, and his biggest challenge continues to be finding airplanes to sell. For the three airplanes he has on Controller.com, he receives three or four inquiries per day. In addition, he said that, “Prices are still going up rapidly.” Increases of 30 percent over a year ago aren’t uncommon.
According to Worrell, the shop is so busy, airplanes are stacked up outside, the charter department can’t keep up, and the avionics manufacturers can’t make boxes fast enough. All that points to a continued healthy industry.
Byerly is by no means negative on the future market. Brokers like to see more balance in the market because it lets them better serve both buyer and seller. Byerly said it’s perhaps a pause in the chaos of what he calls the two-hour, no-prebuy market rather than a transition either way.
